On January 16th, 2024, Iran launched a campaign of missile and drone strikes within Pakistani borders, with Pakistan’s retaliation with their campaign of missile and drone strikes souring the relations between the two powers. This exchange of strikes stoked fear throughout the Central Asian and Arab world, given the recent uptick in global tensions, especially in the Arab world. Iran has stated that the Pakistani strikes were targeting the Baloch militant group Jaish al-Adl. Iran accused Jaish al-Adl of carrying out attacks within Iranian borders and alleged that Pakistan provides hideouts for the militants to train members and plan attacks on Iranian military personnel.
Both sides have claimed that attacks have hit civilians on the ground, with an official estimate not yet agreed upon by outside sources due to the lack of sufficient infrastructure in the stricken regions; however, Iran has reported nine dead with four children, three women, and two men according to the Iranian Interior Minister who has condemned the strikes.
Both countries officially halted diplomatic relations after the attacks; however, as of January 22nd, 2024, they have begun talks to rebuild diplomatic ties with the Iranian Foreign Minister to visit Pakistan. The rhetoric from both sides in the aftermath grew in hostility and stoked fears of a potential conflict between a nuclear power, Pakistan, and a major global player and military superpower, Iran. With the ongoing war in Palestinian-held Gaza, international tensions and regional tensions are already at an all-time high; this exchange worried analysts about a potential escalation. However, with talks seeming to proceed positively, the reality is that this skirmish will be resolved within the coming weeks if not days. The UN Secretary-General has urged both sides to “exercise maximum restraint to avoid a further escalation of tensions.”
Since the October 7th attacks on Israel by Hamas militants and the relentless bombardment by Israeli forces into Gaza, which has now killed upwards of 25,000 Palestinians, tensions and violence have skyrocketed to unprecedented levels, the Houthi strikes on global trade via the Red Sea have also significantly heightened tensions within the Middle East as the United States and the United Kingdom have begun striking Houthi targets within Yemen and have redefined the Houthis as terrorists once again, after president Donald J. Trump stripped them of it, halting all foreign aid entering the one of the most impoverished nations on the planet. A recent raid by coalition forces on a ship headed to Yemen reportedly found smuggled weapons and ammunition headed towards the country, which has also added fuel to the increased tensions in the subcontinent.
As the relations in the Middle East deteriorate, the world mourns those we have lost, celebrates the progress towards peace between two superpowers, and holds its breath for what’s in store for the sub-continent and the world.
